Arlington, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

609
FXUS64 KFWD 250651
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
151 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog is expected this morning which could be locally dense
  in a few areas.

- Daily rain and storm chances will continue through the middle of
  next week.

- Some severe storms are possible, with the greatest chance
  expected to be Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today through Tonight/

After a very stormy day across North and Central Texas on
Thursday, radar scope is currently clear across the region. Did
have a brief storm pop up near Young County earlier that has since
dissipated. The widespread wet grounds from yesterday`s rainfall
and light to calm winds suggest patchy, locally dense fog will
develop overnight and indeed already seeing some across our east.
However, the considerable mid and high level cloud cover should
keep the fog from becoming too widespread this morning, so no
advisory is planned unless the fog goes gangbusters.

Off to our north, a MCS has developed across Oklahoma that will
attempt to make it down towards the Red River later this morning.
However, the atmosphere across North Texas has been greatly
stabilized by the widespread rain and storms on Thursday with the
current HRRR analyzed CAPE near zero for much of our cwa.
Therefore the activity in Oklahoma should fall apart if it
survives across the Red River later this morning. Even so, will
have low pops in across the north for a few showers or storms
that may be leftover from the MCS. Otherwise, expecting a lull in
shower and storm activity across the cwa today as a weak ridge
builds aloft over the eastern half of the state, and I`m only
including a slight chance pop for an isolated shower or storm.
Best rain chances will be across our south late this afternoon or
evening as seabreeze activity tries to reach our southern
counties. The lack of precip today will allow highs to warm well
into the 80s this afternoon. Rain chances will increase across our
northwest and north overnight as storms in the Texas Panhandle
and West Texas head this way, although latest CAMs keep most of
this activity out of our area until after 12Z Saturday.

Shamburger

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 246 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/
Update:

Overall: not much has changed in terms of messaging for the long
term forecast. We still expect waning convection Friday night
with the potential for another MCS moving in from our northwest
Saturday morning, before a lull in precipitation on Sunday. Rain
chances will increase Monday onward as an upper level trough
begins to swing east and send shortwaves over the region. Tuesday
will be our next day to watch the sky as a dryline encroaches from
the west and a front in Oklahoma moves south towards the Red
River. With North and Central Texas being within the favorable
warm sector, enough instability and shear will be present for
severe weather.

Afternoon highs will remain near to slightly above normal for this
time of year with daily highs in the 70s and/or 80s through the
middle of next week. Overnights will remain warm due to cloud
cover and humidity, with temperatures bottoming out mainly in the
60s.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

VFR conditions are expected early in the TAF period with scattered
to broken mid and high level clouds. Patchy fog will bring
MVFR/IFR vis/cigs to airports around sunrise this morning before
improving by 15Z. However, confidence is not high on exact fog
impacts at each airport due to the patchy nature and remaining
cloud cover. After 15Z, little or no SHRA/TSRA are anticipated at
airports today although cannot rule one out especially at KACT,
with a better chance for showers and storms towards the end or
after the current TAF period. South winds 5-10 knots this morning
will back to southeasterly during the day, then veer back to
southerly tonight.

Shamburger

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    85  66  83  67  86 /  20  30  40  20   5
Waco                84  66  86  66  87 /  20  10  10  10   5
Paris               82  65  80  64  82 /  20  20  60  20  10
Denton              84  63  82  63  84 /  20  40  50  20  10
McKinney            82  65  81  65  84 /  20  40  50  20   5
Dallas              85  67  83  67  86 /  20  30  40  20   5
Terrell             84  65  83  64  85 /  20  20  40  10   5
Corsicana           84  67  85  67  87 /  20  10  20  10   5
Temple              86  65  86  65  89 /  30  10  10   5   5
Mineral Wells       86  64  83  63  86 /  20  40  40  20   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$